College Football

Reverse Line Movement

Saturday, September 5, 2026 · generated 12:14 AM ET

This Slate

2W - 2L (50%)

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Saturday, September 5, 2026

20 games screened

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Season Picks

2W - 3L (40%)

Games screened

Confirmed signals

Still open

Locked at kickoff

What this screen looks for

A book that holds most of the money on one side should move its number toward that side. When it does the opposite — shading the price to make the popular side cheaper while already carrying that exposure — it is telling you its own number disagrees with its customers. That is reverse line movement, and it is the only thing flagged here.

Method. Two free, independent splits feeds are joined per game:

Action Network consensus — % of money and % of tickets across books, plus a timestamped line history back to the opener.
VSiN — DraftKings' own handle % and bet %.

A game is flagged only when both feeds agree on which side holds the money and the line has moved against that side in the last 3 days. Games under 8,000 tracked bets are dropped: on thin FCS markets the two feeds disagree by a median of roughly 30 points of money share, so their percentages there cannot be trusted.

Confirmed signals

BAY @ AUB

Spread · kickoff 3:30 PM ET · 47,811 bets tracked

Final · locked

BAY +6.5

AUB holds 73% of the money (Action Network) and 62% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing AUB -6.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money.

Open → now

-7.5 → -6.5

Money %

73 / 62

Ticket %

65 / 55

Move 3d / 1d

+1 / +1

Sources agree

Yes

Kicked off — frozen at the last pre-kickoff reading, 2026-09-05 18:00 UTC. This is the record of the pick.

BOISE @ ORE

Spread · kickoff 3:30 PM ET · 36,588 bets tracked

Final · locked

BOISE +24.5

ORE holds 75% of the money (Action Network) and 76% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing ORE -24.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money.

Open → now

-24.5 → -24.5

Money %

75 / 76

Ticket %

52 / 85

Move 3d / 1d

+1 / +1

Sources agree

Yes

Kicked off — frozen at the last pre-kickoff reading, 2026-09-05 18:00 UTC. This is the record of the pick.

BC @ CIN

Total · kickoff 3:30 PM ET · 19,321 bets tracked

Final · locked

OVER 51.5

UNDER holds 83% of the money (Action Network) and 75% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 2 pts the other way. The book is pricing Under 51.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money.

Open → now

54.5 → 51.5

Money %

83 / 75

Ticket %

84 / 47

Move 3d / 1d

+2 / +2

Sources agree

Yes

Kicked off — frozen at the last pre-kickoff reading, 2026-09-05 18:00 UTC. This is the record of the pick.

FAU @ FLA

Spread · kickoff 7:45 PM ET · 9,521 bets tracked

Final · locked

FAU +26

FLA holds 70% of the money (Action Network) and 73% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 0.5 pts the other way. The book is pricing FLA -26 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money.

Open → now

-26 → -26

Money %

70 / 73

Ticket %

44 / 83

Move 3d / 1d

+0.5 / +0.5

Sources agree

Yes

Kicked off — frozen at the last pre-kickoff reading, 2026-09-05 23:00 UTC. This is the record of the pick.

Results

Matchup	Market	Pick	Final	Result
BAY @ AUB	spread	BAY +6.5	16-17	win
BC @ CIN	total	OVER 51.5	15-34	loss
BOISE @ ORE	spread	BOISE +24.5	27-34	win
FAU @ FLA	spread	FAU +26	21-66	loss

Graded against the number frozen before kickoff, not a later one. This slate: 2W - 2L (50%).

Full board — spreads

Matchup	ET	Bets	Open	Now	Money on	AN $%	AN T%	DK $%	DK T%	7d	3d	1d
CLEM @ LSU	7:30	76,619	-10.5	-10.5	LSU	63	48	79	71	0	0	0	FINAL
BAY @ AUB	3:30	47,811	-7.5	-6.5	AUB	73	65	62	55	+1	+1	+1	RLM FINAL
BOISE @ ORE	3:30	36,588	-24.5	-24.5	ORE	75	52	76	85	0	+1	+1	RLM FINAL
ARST @ MEM	7:00	29,353	-10.5	-10.5	MEM	65	73	25	72	-2	+1	0	rlm? FINAL
TXST @ TEX	3:30	27,298	-30.5	-30	TEX	61	14	90	92	+0.5	0	0	FINAL
OKST @ TLSA	3:45	26,318	11.5	13.5	OKST	66	64	66	69	-1	0	0	FINAL
WMU @ MICH	7:30	21,189	-26.5	-28	WMU	80	88	20	16	+0.5	0	0	FINAL
MRSH @ PSU	3:30	20,442	-23.5	-23.5	MRSH	65	47	14	19	+1	+1	+1	FINAL
WYO @ CSU	6:00	20,427	-4	-3.5	WYO	72	44	77	53	0	0	0	FINAL
BC @ CIN	3:30	19,321	-9.5	-7.5	BC	68	41	64	46	0	0	0	FINAL
TULN @ DUKE	3:30	19,255	-8.5	-7.5	TULN	62	35	75	54	+2	0	0	FINAL
BALL @ OSU	12:30	17,508	-49.5	-50.5	BALL	88	96	19	24	0	0	0	FINAL
NIU @ IOWA	4:15	16,670	-29.5	-31.5	NIU	74	97	26	56	0	0	0	FINAL
KENT @ SC	12:45	14,378	-33.5	-35.5	KENT	80	96	20	23	+1	+1	+1	FINAL
TNST @ UGA	3:00	14,106	-48.5	-48.5	TNST	53	96	20	25	-1	-1	-1	rlm? FINAL
M-OH @ PITT	12:30	12,581	-16.5	-16.5	M-OH	53	53	17	22	0	0	0	FINAL
MOST @ TA&M	7:00	11,788	-38.5	-40.5	MOST	94	97	15	13	0	0	0	FINAL
FIU @ USF	7:00	10,885	-12.5	-14.5	USF	72	72	67	73	-1	-1	0	FINAL
FAU @ FLA	7:45	9,521	-26	-26	FLA	70	44	73	83	+0.5	+0.5	+0.5	RLM FINAL
ULM @ MSST	7:30	9,350	-28.5	-28.5	ULM	80	96	14	19	0	0	0	FINAL

Movement columns are the change in the home spread over each window. Teal = moved against the money (the signal); orange = moved with it. AN = Action Network consensus, DK = DraftKings. Percentages are for the side named in “Money on”.

Full board — totals

Matchup	ET	Bets	Open	Now	Money on	AN $%	AN T%	DK $%	DK T%	7d	3d	1d
CLEM @ LSU	7:30	76,619	51.5	49.5	UNDER	61	60	49	47	-2	-1	-1	FINAL
BAY @ AUB	3:30	47,811	59.5	58.5	UNDER	73	77	70	60	-1	0	0	FINAL
BOISE @ ORE	3:30	36,588	53.5	51.5	UNDER	70	79	9	11	-1	0	0	FINAL
ARST @ MEM	7:00	29,353	57.5	52.5	UNDER	75	73	38	27	-3	0	-1	FINAL
TXST @ TEX	3:30	27,298	60.5	60.5	UNDER	65	88	22	25	0	+1	+1	rlm? FINAL
OKST @ TLSA	3:45	26,318	60.5	57.5	UNDER	83	93	36	42	-3	-1	-1	FINAL
WMU @ MICH	7:30	21,189	46.5	49.5	OVER	52	68	63	79	+1	+1	0	FINAL
MRSH @ PSU	3:30	20,442	53.5	52.5	UNDER	85	86	45	40	-2	0	0	FINAL
WYO @ CSU	6:00	20,427	46.5	46.5	UNDER	77	74	95	56	-2	0	0	FINAL
BC @ CIN	3:30	19,321	54.5	51.5	UNDER	83	84	75	47	0	+2	+2	RLM FINAL
TULN @ DUKE	3:30	19,255	54.5	50.5	UNDER	80	83	51	48	0	-1	-1	FINAL
BALL @ OSU	12:30	17,508	57.5	55.5	UNDER	64	77	9	12	-1	-1	-1	FINAL
NIU @ IOWA	4:15	16,670	42.5	44.5	OVER	62	60	54	54	-1	0	0	FINAL
KENT @ SC	12:45	14,378	51.5	53.5	UNDER	58	72	7	17	0	0	0	FINAL
TNST @ UGA	3:00	14,106	55.5	55.5	UNDER	62	70	35	26	0	+1	+1	rlm? FINAL
M-OH @ PITT	12:30	12,581	49.5	47.5	UNDER	64	66	26	23	-2	-1	0	FINAL
MOST @ TA&M	7:00	11,788	53.5	53.5	UNDER	76	83	5	10	+1	0	0	FINAL
FIU @ USF	7:00	10,885	55.5	53.5	UNDER	70	71	48	25	-1	+2	+2	rlm? FINAL
FAU @ FLA	7:45	9,521	58.5	59.5	UNDER	52	96	32	46	0	0	0	FINAL
ULM @ MSST	7:30	9,350	53.5	54.5	UNDER	63	88	79	39	-1	0	0	FINAL

How much to trust it

The edge is modest. Reverse line movement is a real but heavily degraded signal — books price it in now. This screen finds where a market is behaving oddly; it does not establish that the odd behaviour is wrong.
Splits are a snapshot, not a history. Percentages are read at generation time and will drift before kickoff.
Ticket shape can conflict. Where one feed shows money concentrated in few tickets and the other shows it spread across many, the sharp reading is weaker. The per-game cards show both so the disagreement stays visible.
Totals move spreads. A falling total mechanically compresses a spread, so part of a spread move can be a total move wearing a disguise.
Check the news. A line moving against the money is often just an injury the percentages have not caught up with yet.