College Football

Reverse Line Movement

Sunday, September 6, 2026 · generated 12:14 AM ET

This Slate

0W - 1L (0%)

←

Sunday, September 6, 2026

3 games screened

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Season Picks

2W - 3L (40%)

Games screened

Confirmed signals

Still open

Locked at kickoff

What this screen looks for

A book that holds most of the money on one side should move its number toward that side. When it does the opposite — shading the price to make the popular side cheaper while already carrying that exposure — it is telling you its own number disagrees with its customers. That is reverse line movement, and it is the only thing flagged here.

Method. Two free, independent splits feeds are joined per game:

Action Network consensus — % of money and % of tickets across books, plus a timestamped line history back to the opener.
VSiN — DraftKings' own handle % and bet %.

A game is flagged only when both feeds agree on which side holds the money and the line has moved against that side in the last 3 days. Games under 8,000 tracked bets are dropped: on thin FCS markets the two feeds disagree by a median of roughly 30 points of money share, so their percentages there cannot be trusted.

Confirmed signals

WIS @ ND

Total · kickoff 7:30 PM ET · 69,667 bets tracked

Final · locked

UNDER 45.5

OVER holds 86% of the money (Action Network) and 65% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 45.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money.

Open → now

46.5 → 45.5

Money %

86 / 65

Ticket %

93 / 70

Move 3d / 1d

-1 / -1

Sources agree

Yes

Kicked off — frozen at the last pre-kickoff reading, 2026-09-06 23:00 UTC. This is the record of the pick.

Results

Matchup	Market	Pick	Final	Result
WIS @ ND	total	UNDER 45.5	13-41	loss

Graded against the number frozen before kickoff, not a later one. This slate: 0W - 1L (0%).

Full board — spreads

Matchup	ET	Bets	Open	Now	Money on	AN $%	AN T%	DK $%	DK T%	7d	3d	1d
LOU @ MISS	7:30	78,416	-8.5	-6.5	MISS	72	73	77	79	0	0	0	FINAL
WIS @ ND	7:30	69,667	-19.5	-21	ND	75	71	80	82	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	FINAL
WSU @ WASH	4:00	34,603	-21.5	-23	WSU	70	73	56	37	0	0	0	FINAL

Movement columns are the change in the home spread over each window. Teal = moved against the money (the signal); orange = moved with it. AN = Action Network consensus, DK = DraftKings. Percentages are for the side named in “Money on”.

Full board — totals

Matchup	ET	Bets	Open	Now	Money on	AN $%	AN T%	DK $%	DK T%	7d	3d	1d
LOU @ MISS	7:30	78,416	53.5	55.5	OVER	50	71	68	76	0	0	0	FINAL
WIS @ ND	7:30	69,667	46.5	45.5	OVER	86	93	65	70	-2	-1	-1	RLM FINAL
WSU @ WASH	4:00	34,603	47.5	51.5	OVER	93	67	74	77	+1	+1	+1	FINAL

How much to trust it

The edge is modest. Reverse line movement is a real but heavily degraded signal — books price it in now. This screen finds where a market is behaving oddly; it does not establish that the odd behaviour is wrong.
Splits are a snapshot, not a history. Percentages are read at generation time and will drift before kickoff.
Ticket shape can conflict. Where one feed shows money concentrated in few tickets and the other shows it spread across many, the sharp reading is weaker. The per-game cards show both so the disagreement stays visible.
Totals move spreads. A falling total mechanically compresses a spread, so part of a spread move can be a total move wearing a disguise.
Check the news. A line moving against the money is often just an injury the percentages have not caught up with yet.